Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
